The 2007 Baseball Season Is Almost Upon Us . . .

. . . so let's get our 90% Mentality started with this totally apropos quote . . .

"There's one word that describes baseball: 'You never know.'"

-Joaquin Andujar, former major league pitcher

Nick Punto just crossed my mind for the first time since November.

Tell Your Statistics To Shut Up

My favorite part about the McGwire-in-the-hall debate is that few baseball writers are willing to do a little bit of statistical analysis -- or at least talk to someone who can do it for them. Check out McGwire's stats here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mcgwima01.shtml . Through age 30, he's most like ... Cecil Fielder. A wonderful competitor -- for a hot dog-eating contest, but certainly no baseball HOFer.

Through age 30 (1994 season), McGwire hit exactly 236 more HRs than I have. Nothing to sneeze at, to be sure, but then again I haven't taken a swing in an MLB game (I did hit two in high school, though).

In the first full season of the "juiced era" (thanks to Baseball Prospectus here http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4845), however, something magical happened. All over baseball homeruns began flying out of the park at the ridiculous clip of 30 percent more per game (25 % in the AL and 35 % in the NL see that same Baseball Prospectus article)!

Never before in baseball had that kind of jump occurred.

McGwire hit 345 HRs in his age 31 season through retirement. If we're fair about it, we should discount those HRs relative to the other eras in baseball by -- I'll even give you the conservative measure: 25 %. That's 86 (and some change) fewer HRs for Big Mac, leaving him with an "adjusted" total of 497 HRs.

Couple that stat with 1626 hits and a .263 lifetime average and who do you get? Somebody between Dave Kingman and Juan Gonzalez.

Would you put either of those guys in the Baseball HOF? I thought not.

(All these stats assume that the Baseball Prospectus is the unquestioned lord and master of baseball statistics.)

My Season of Discontent

Ridiculous.

I've upgraded my Indians season ticket package from 20 games (of which I actually saw 15) to 27 this year, splitting a full season three ways with a couple of friends.

Sure, we upgraded our seats -- we're sitting on the left field foul line in the angled-seat section.

Sure, we have more games.

Sure, the Tribe's got to better than last year (don't EVEN get me started).

But there is a distinct possibility that if the Indians make a run deep into the 2007 playoffs, I'll be sipping the High Life out in Kauai.

Yes. That's right. I'm going to Hawaii for two weeks in October. The very same two weeks the American League Championship Series and World Series take place.

Of course, if the Tribe makes it that far, I'll be more than happy to drink myself into a stupor at 3 in the afternoon on a beach somewhere on southern Kauai. But damnit! I missed the last two World Series because of stupid college. And if those jackasses decide to get their acts together this year, I could very well miss this one.

I hate the Indians.

Get To Know Your Newest Dodger

Sure, we think we know all about Jason Schmidt from watching him pitch for the Giants, but I think this penetrating cartoon provides a unique insight.

Cubs sign Soriano; a 'Nation' yawns

CHICAGO - You know a fan base is jaded when its team signs the top free agent on the market and people are angry. And I can see why. Soriano is a magnificent player when motivated, but he's 31 and the terms (8 years, a trillion dollars) make him virtually untradeable.

Health permitting, their lineup actually kind of borders on awesome. But until their pitching improves, I can't be bothered.

Tigers trade for Sheffield

My take: They get 5 percent better, 100 percent less likable. In the end they will regret this trade I feel. Although if anybody can tame Barry Bonds-lite, I suppose it's Leyland.

Umm are we going to hug this out. . . or just move on to hot stove league?

Flashback to Game 1: A PictoPhoto Tour

ROYAL OAK, Mich. -- Sure we're losing. Sure we look unprepared. Sure we're blowing it. But dammmmmm. We're having fun.

@ the airport.

With the Bro-in-law @ 10a @ the park

Down Brush Street toward RenCen

Pregame Skip

Game time from seat location #2
The town is smiling...smiling for the Magical Season to continue...

Back! Back to the '80s!

The Detroit News (interns, probably) put together a 33-image retrospective on the 1984 World Series. There's surprisingly little action in these photos. And I love the fact that the away game is in black and white.

http://www.detroitnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage

Ughh

CHICAGO - Out of respect for what's happening in the D, I've been waiting to comment on the patently bizarre offseason the Chicago baseball clubs have thus far endured.

I don't really have anything to say about this either. Other then, 'sheeeeeit.'

World Series Blockbuster!

If Todd Jones blows a save . . .




. . . we'll know he's been secretly replaced by Morgan Spurlock, taping an episode of "30 Days" in which he finds out what it's like to spend one full baseball postseason hanging out with Fernando Rodney.

A World Series Gift For My Detroit Homies

I hope this resonates for you all on this Game One Day. Only one more week of baseball; enjoy every minute . . .

Manager Watch: In With the Old!

Meet your new hero. But now that Jimmy Ley-best is at the helm, what's the famous starting point for our 1984 6-4-3 doing? Turns out, Tram is throwing out the first pitch tomorrow...USA Today gets the skinny on the guy we all knew shouldn't have taken the job in 2003.

Worst. Game. Ever

I love Rob Neyer's column on ESPN. He's always posting something statistical about baseball that proves "gut feelings" about the grand old sport belong somewhere between hearsay and conjecture in the "admissible evidence" pantheon.

Today's column is about the worst-ever game-seven pitcher. It's Oliver Perez for the Mets.

Perez boasts the fewest number of wins in a season in which he's pitching a game seven, lowest winning percentage in a season, lowest career winning percentage and second-worst career ERA. Guess who's got the worst career ERA for a game-seven starter?

Jeff Suppan. Tonight's starter for the Cards.

Ugh. We're in for a real pitcher's duel tonight.