My favorite part about the McGwire-in-the-hall debate is that few baseball writers are willing to do a little bit of statistical analysis -- or at least talk to someone who can do it for them. Check out McGwire's stats here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mcgwima01.shtml . Through age 30, he's most like ... Cecil Fielder. A wonderful competitor -- for a hot dog-eating contest, but certainly no baseball HOFer.
Through age 30 (1994 season), McGwire hit exactly 236 more HRs than I have. Nothing to sneeze at, to be sure, but then again I haven't taken a swing in an MLB game (I did hit two in high school, though).
In the first full season of the "juiced era" (thanks to Baseball Prospectus here http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4845), however, something magical happened. All over baseball homeruns began flying out of the park at the ridiculous clip of 30 percent more per game (25 % in the AL and 35 % in the NL see that same Baseball Prospectus article)!
Never before in baseball had that kind of jump occurred.
McGwire hit 345 HRs in his age 31 season through retirement. If we're fair about it, we should discount those HRs relative to the other eras in baseball by -- I'll even give you the conservative measure: 25 %. That's 86 (and some change) fewer HRs for Big Mac, leaving him with an "adjusted" total of 497 HRs.
Couple that stat with 1626 hits and a .263 lifetime average and who do you get? Somebody between Dave Kingman and Juan Gonzalez.
Would you put either of those guys in the Baseball HOF? I thought not.
(All these stats assume that the Baseball Prospectus is the unquestioned lord and master of baseball statistics.)
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4 comments:
I have a Cecil Fielder pennant hanging on the wall in my kitchen.
Does that inspire you to be all you can be -- in hot dog-eating contests? Et tu, Kobayashi?
He hit 49 homers as a rookie, then his production was stunted by injuries for a couple years as I recall. His post-30 resurgence could theoretically be explained by the simple fact he got healthy.
How did he get healthy? That's a whole other thing. . .
. . . And I am by no means accusing Cal Ripken of anything, but he was a guy who got bigger over time and stayed almost completely healthy playing 20 years at a high impact position. How come he gets a free pass from all the suspicion?
i don't think anyone should get a free pass from suspicion. however, my point about mcgwire has more to do with his one-dimensional baseballing than it does with his suspected steroid use.
the hall of fame is full of cheaters, philanderers, drunks and the occasional alleged murderer (see ty cobb). that's fine, i guess. they're not in there for the high quality of their character.
whether or not mcgwire "cheated" is irrelevant to me. i just don't think he was good enough to warrant HOF status.
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