While I won't disagree that the dramatic heart of baseball is located squarely in the AL Central this season (and if you asked me to make a futures book on the World Series right now, I'd honestly tell you that I'd rank whichever two teams emerge from that division among the three favorites to win it all), it's worth noting what the Dodgers are up to right now. I've been to the Stadium three times in the last four games and I'm going back again on Tuesday. Here's some of what's going on down there:
- Both winning streaks and losing streaks, in my experience, seem to make their own inertia and take on weird lives of their own. This Dodger run (14/15 at present) has that feeling--when Kenny Lofton is giving you walk-off hits, you know there's a little magic afoot. It's fun to feel like you're going to win every game, even when you're behind, and then to be right.
- From August to October, the effectiveness of almost every team's bullpen becomes freakishly vital. The Dodgers bullpen has, under the radar, gotten really, really good. For all the talk about the bats Colletti has picked up, I think the relief pitching is the key right now. Brett Tomko is an ideal set-up guy, far more effective in relief than as a starter. Aaron Sele, another converted starter, is a great inning-eater when necessary. Jonathan Broxton is going to be a great closer in a year or two and in the meantime, Takashi Saito is the best closer nobody is talking about. Opponents just aren't hitting or scoring much against us in the second half of games. L.A. will have a Gagne-hangover for the rest of the year--there won't be any signature songs for Saito or Broxton when they come out to start the ninth (although they are, rather tragically, playing "Big, Bad John" at some point during Broxton's appearances)--but the fact is the bullpen has fully recovered and Saito (see pic-of-the-week above) is lights-out.
- Rafael Furcal looks much more comfortable at shortstop than he did in the first half of the season. Hard to blame him: most shortstops would press with Cesar Izturis observing them from the bench; it would be like trying to talk to your actors with Stanley Kubrick sitting on a director's chair on your set, watching you. Furcal will never be an artist of Izturis's stature, but he's doing his job now, finally, and hitting the crud out of the ball. He plays with spunk and I have to hand that to him. (I still can't believe we traded Kubrick to England for prospects early in his career; what were we thinking?!)
- Chad Billingsley is an interesting x-factor. There's a rumor that he's going to be skipped for his next start--they'll start Sele instead--because of his wildness and high pitch counts. His fastball was off by four or five mph when I saw him a couple days ago and that's really a concern. But the fact is, he's got amazing potential and we'll need him for the playoffs.
- Even though this team has a lot of new additions, it feels like there really are "Dodgers" on the roster. The fans love the young guys: Andre Ethier, Russ Martin mainly but also James Loney and Broxton. I personally think Matt Kemp will be a big contributor after September call-ups. This is a big deal for a team with our tradition of home-grown prospects--I need to feel like our team has a Dodger personality. And then there's Olmedo Saenz, who feels to me, like the soul of the team. I say he's the second-greatest Dodger pinch-hitter ever, after Manny Mota, and I genuinely believe he's going to win important games off the bench. Even Garciaparra and Kent feel like "Dodgers" because L.A. is their hometown. All this feels somehow relevant. Yes, there are a lot of new faces, but this doesn't feel like a store-bought team.
- Grady Little seems to have his guys onboard with being "components" right now. Julio Lugo is an excellent shortstop--frankly, he looks a little uncertain at third and even second--but he seems totally game for whatever is needed from him. Betemit could clearly be an everyday player, but he looks okay platooning. (Betemit looks just great, by the way--that's going to turn out to be the really killer trade.) But will a team of guys who don't really know each other stay on the same page and feel good about playing out of position if and when the winning stops?
The fact is, I can be prescient and smart about most of what happens in baseball until we start talking about the Dodgers, and then I just get extrordinarily dumb. (I'm the guy who was so enamored of the Expos in the early '90s that I thought, for a few weeks anyway, that getting Delino DeShields for Pedro Martinez might not be such a bad deal!) I get too negative when it's not necessary and vice-versa. So take this with a grain of salt: the Dodgers should definitely win their division, but I still see potential problems. The chemistry is strange. You've got J.D. Drew who feels weirdly apathetic and could, at any time, go back on the DL. I spend much of the games I go to watching the middle infielders and I've never seen two who communicate less than Kent and Furcal--they're both weird, prickly guys to begin with, but honestly it's just strange. With a runner on first Furcal will be signaling about who's going to cover on a steal and Kent will never even look at him. Derek Lowe feels like a train-wreck waiting to happen. And OF COURSE we have to remember that this is the NL Worst and winning the division probably means a quick trip out of the playoffs. But after the Mets (who have no excuse not to win the pennant) the whole league looks shaky enough that who knows.
I have no grand summary here, no big predictions. But it's a really interesting team to watch right now. Tonight's ESPN game is must-see TV: Maddux v. Schmidt with the Dodgers going for a sweep of their rivals. ESPN will play up the Bonds v. Maddux angle, but believe me, Bonds ain't that scary right now. Schmidt, however, is.
1 comment:
Sunday was the game of the week, indeed.
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